Research
Working papers
Propagation of extreme heat in agriculture across sectors and space
(An earlier version circulated as “Sectoral impact and propagation of weather shocks”, IMF Working Paper, 2023/053)
Abstract
Agriculture is widely recognized as one of the sectors most vulnerable to extreme temperatures. Yet, crop losses are estimated to form only a modest share of aggregate macroeconomic damages from climate change, since agriculture accounts for a small share of global GDP. These estimates, however, arise from analyses that largely ignore the critical role of agriculture as an upstream sector in global production networks, including the sectoral and spatial linkages connecting local agricultural output to other sectors and regions. In this paper, I develop a novel reduced form method to incorporate input linkages between sectors and countries that I use to estimate the aggregate impacts of extreme heat in agriculture. A multi-region multi-sector production network model illustrates how extreme heat in agriculture can propagate to downstream sectors across countries by reducing supply availability and increasing intermediate input prices. Exploiting the geographic distribution and temperature sensitivity of 118 crops across the world, I construct a measure of exposure to extreme heat in agriculture and show that it induces substantial losses to downstream sectors, across national borders, and beyond first degree linkages. Counterfactual exercises reveal that input linkages are responsible for approximately 70% of the total value added losses induced by extreme heat in agriculture. The analysis additionally demonstrates the critical role of countries that are central to global production networks, suggesting that local benefits from adaptation in such regions can have substantial co-benefits downstream and in other locations.
Endogenous green preferences (with Ravi Vora)
CESifo Working Paper No. 11857
Abstract
Stringent environmental policies often lack public support. But after policies are enacted, do individual preferences about them change? Using surveys covering 38 countries around the world, we study the effect of exposure to environmental policies on policy preferences. Exploiting within-country-year, across birth-cohort variation, we find that individuals exposed to more stringent environmental policies during early adulthood are more supportive of environmental policies later on in life. This relationship suggests that a society's environmental policy attitudes evolve endogenously, with implications for choosing measures, forecasting their path over time, and evaluating their normative appropriateness.
Climate-induced migration and environmental values
Abstract
Climate awareness is crucial for garnering support for climate policies. While prior work highlights socio-political factors and local weather experiences as determinants of climate concern, this paper formulates a novel mechanism: exposure to the socio-economic consequences of climate change. I test this hypothesis using climate-induced migration inflows, which can reduce the psychological distance of climate shocks or raise the perceived costs of climate inaction. Focusing on asylum seekers displaced by extreme temperatures and precipitation in non-OECD countries and arriving in the European Union between 2000 and 2019, I construct a gravity-predicted instrument combining exogenous weather variation and bilateral measures of migration costs. I find that weather-driven asylum demands significantly increase public climate concern in host countries, ruling out alternative channels such as media coverage and trade. The effect is driven by right-leaning and less-educated voters, suggesting that heightened concern reflects an increase in perceived salience and cost of climate inaction rather than a broad increase in climate awareness. Shifts in stated preferences, however, do not translate into pro-environmental voting, consistent with turnout effects, non-voter preference changes, and stable party platforms.
Co-benefits of substance abuse regulation on temperature and intimate partner violence (with Filippo Pavanello)
Abstract
Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) is a critical public health concern often linked to substance abuse. Environmental factors can exacerbate substance addiction and use, potentially leading to increased violence. Building on prior work showing that higher temperatures increase violent behavior, we investigate whether substance abuse regulations affect the relationship between temperature and IPV. Leveraging administrative data combined with random fluctuations in daily temperature the jurisdiction level in the United States, we document that an exogenous abuse-deterrent reformulation of opioids in 2010 significantly attenuates the temperature-IPV relationship in counties with higher initial rates of prescription opioid usage. Our main mechanism suggests an indirect reduction in the complementary use of other substances, particularly alcohol, during hot days. Our findings indicate that policies targeting substance abuse may have co-benefits in mitigating the adverse effects of temperature increases.
Publications
Adaptation to climate change (2024) (with Tamma Carleton, Esther Duflo, Kelsey Jack)
Handbook of the Economics of Climate Change, Volume 1, 1, 143-248, Elsevier (eds. Lint Barrage and Solomon Hsiang)
[NBER Working Paper] [VoxEu Column]
Adapting to climate change accounting for individual beliefs (2024)
Journal of Development Economics, 169, 103289
Drought exposure and accuracy: Motivated reasoning in climate change beliefs (2023)
Environmental and Resource Economics, 85, 649–672 [PDF]